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Demographic cycle

Studying the world population since 1650 suggests that demographic transition of a nation involves of 5 stages.
These stages constitute the “demographic cycle”.
(1) FIRST STAGE (High stationary)
It is characterized by both
*A high birth rate and
*A high death rate
Therefore the population remains stationary
It is seen when the country is economically most weak
India was in this stage till 1920
(2) SECOND STAGE (Early expanding)
It begins with the
*Declining of death rate while
*Birth rate still remains high.
As a result a huge increase of population occurs. ainai
The DR decline is mainly due to improvements in food supply, health care and sanitation)
At present many developing countries of Asia and Africa are in this stage
The BRs have actually increased in some of these countries probably because of:
– improved health care provisions, and
– shortening periods of breast-feeding
(3) THIRD STAGE (Late expanding)
*Death rate declines further and
*Birth rate now begins to fall.
However, as the BR still exceeds the DR, there is an increase of population
The fall in BR results mostly from access to contraceptives, women empowerment etc.
India appears to be this stage.
In some developing countries (e.g. China, Singapore) birth rates too have declined fast.
(4) FOURTH STAGE (Low stationary)
This stage is characterized with
Low birth rate and
Low death rate
Consequently, the population remains stationary.
An aging population is a feature of this stage.
Japan, Sweden, Belgium, Denmark and Switzerland are in this stage
Most industrialized countries have undergone a demographic transition
*From a high BR and high DR
*To low BR and low DR
• Zero population growth has already been recorded in Austria during 1980- 85.
• Growth rate as low as 0.1 was recorded in UK, Denmark, Sweden and Belgium during 1980-85.
(5) FIFTH STAGE: (Declining)
Birth rate is now lower than death rate
Hence the population begins to decline
Some East European countries (e.g. Germany and Hungary) and some north European countries (e.g. Sweden, Norway) are now in this stage

Park K. Demography and Family Planning. In: Park’s Textbook of Preventive and Social Medicine, 25th ed. Jabalpur, India: M/S Banarasidas Bhanot Publishers; 2019

Dependency Ratio:
Demographic cycle:
Fertility Indicators:
11 Fertility Indicators relevant for MBBS students:
sources of data for demography: